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Introduction
Working adults with limited education and low-paying jobs stand to benefit the most from postsecondary education, yet these programs are largely inaccessible to them. By examining this unique population, we can better serve them, improving outcomes for these individuals.
An analysis of data published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reveals that about 20% of U.S. working adults work in such low-wage jobs earning less than $15 hours per hour, which is below a living wage in the U.S. At this wage, a full-time worker will earn $31,200 a year. Holding such a low-wage job has broad implications for quality and stability of life. These jobs also tend to lack benefits like employer-provided health care, paid leave, and general flexibility that supports workers as they manage their life circumstances. The constraints of low-wage employment also extend beyond the workers themselves, as a great many of these individuals support other household members.
Furthermore, data from the Brookings Institute shows that almost no low-wage workers have postsecondary experience. Lower education levels correspond with lower wages, meaning that millions of U.S. residents hold jobs that offer little career potential and do not have an educational background or a clear path to a credential that will help them change these circumstances. Possessing a college degree often serves as a cornerstone for upward social mobility, leading to better financial stability and opportunities for career advancement. That is, higher education can equip individuals with the resilience and resources needed to navigate the complexities of modern work environments, fostering a more stable and fulfilling professional and personal life.
Despite the fact that individuals living furthest from opportunity have the most to gain from higher education, most postsecondary programs have historically been structured in ways that made them less accessible to these individuals. Western Governors University (WGU), the nation’s largest competency-based institution, is dedicated to increasing access and opportunity for career-relevant education. To enhance access for this potential student population, WGU developed a framework to better understand and support these individuals. Our research focuses on this segment of the population, which WGU has named “Rising Talent” to distinguish their unique characteristics from other “some college, no degree” individuals.
In this research, we sought to understand the personal, educational, social, economic, and professional circumstances of those who hold jobs with little professional growth opportunity and who have limited postsecondary education to leverage to change their professional trajectory.
We asked:
- To what extent does the Rising Talent group represent a unique subgroup of the U.S. resident population with a distinct set of opportunities and challenges?
- What experiences from adolescence to adulthood shape their circumstances as they approach midlife?
- What opportunities and experiences hold the potential to shift their educational and professional trajectory?
By tracing the experiences of Rising Talent and those who deviate from that path, we learn that by midlife, they face circumstances set in motion decades earlier. These circumstances leave them with few spare resources in terms of time, money, and well-being to pursue education typically provided in higher education institutions.
Still, there is an opportunity to shift that path. Though many Rising Talent see their struggle deepen in the decade of life between the late 20s and late 30s, about half do find their way to better economic circumstances in that time. Our findings suggest that support and collective effort, particularly access to education, can meaningfully change the game for Rising Talent.
Understanding the experience of Rising Talent with a national longitudinal survey
To understand this population of U.S. residents, we turned to the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1997 (NLSY97). The NLSY97, supported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, tracks the life experiences of a nationally representative sample of 8,957 American youth born between 1980 and 1984. The survey commenced in 1997, with participants initially surveyed annually, transitioning to a biennial frequency in 2011.
The NLSY97 includes data on a wide range of topics, including education, employment, family and household dynamics, health conditions, and income. Its key objectives are to understand the transition from school to work, career development over time, the impact of education and training on job market outcomes, and the influence of family and social background on youth and workforce development. The rich and longitudinal nature of the NLSY97 dataset makes it a valuable resource for defining, identifying, and characterizing Rising Talent at various stages in their development as they transition from youths in secondary school to adults in postsecondary education and the workforce at large. By tracking the same individuals over time, the NLSY97 dataset allows for an in-depth analysis of the long-term effects of early life experiences, economic conditions, and education on adult outcomes, such as limited experience in higher education and stagnation in their careers — crucial challenges faced by the Rising Talent population.
We examine Rising Talent from two angles in this data set. In Part 1, we look at the surveyed cohort in 2021, when they are in their late 30s and early 40s, and identify those individuals who are in the lowest quartile by per-person household income and have not earned an education credential beyond the high school diploma. This group is who we identify as Rising Talent. We then trace their journey back to their teenage years to understand what experiences, opportunities, and circumstances they had at different points along that journey.
In Part 2, we look at the surveyed cohort in 2009, when they were in their 20s and in the early stages of their professional journey. We again identify who in the survey sample are in the lowest quartile by per-person household income and without any postsecondary learning experience. This is our “Young Adult Rising Talent” group. We then look forward in the data to see their paths that unfold over time. How many of these individuals are still among the Rising Talent years later? Who appears to improve their economic circumstances? Who accesses a postsecondary pathway? What individual and context factors are associated with their change in trajectory?
Part 1: Looking back to trace the path of Rising Talent
We first looked at the Rising Talent segment in the 2021 survey when the cohort was, on average, 39 years old. The late 30s are an important period in a person’s professional trajectory and a point at which they often pursue professional improvement.
By the late 30s, individuals are entering the peak earning years and may be seeing their chance of promotion start to slip. This is a critical time for reassessing career goals and exploring new opportunities. Indeed, a 2019 survey found that the average age for career switching is 39. Though not typical, a fair number of individuals this age do return to learning. Currently, 5% of full-time college students and 18% of part-time college students are over the age of 35. At WGU, 43% of the total student population is over the age of 35. Because higher education can provide upward social mobility, individuals returning to learning at this age may be seeking to achieve professional growth or new career opportunities.
In the analysis below, we see that Rising Talent at this age live in circumstances that present a host of challenges, including operating with severely constrained resources. This analysis also illustrates how their early life experiences and the systems that perpetuate inequality and struggle influence their present circumstances in meaningful ways. Although it is increasingly common for adults in their late 30s to leverage education to change their professional path, the circumstances for Rising Talent suggest that the opportunity to join these student cohorts remains distant.
Identifying and examining Rising Talent and their paths
We identify Rising Talent based on their educational background and income, as described below:
- Limited higher education: Individuals whose highest degree earned is a high school diploma or less. They may have enrolled in a college but did not earn a degree (associate’s degree or higher).
- Low career resiliency: Individuals whose household income, divided by household size, is below the 25th percentile ($13,250). We considered per-person household income instead of individual income because some individuals may be earning little to no income (e.g., stay-at-home parents) but are supported through other sources (e.g., spouse’s income). For reference, the 2021 Federal Register’s poverty guideline for a one-person household is $12,880.
In total, the NLSY97 included 1,658 respondents meeting these characteristics. Based on weighting calculated by the NLSY, this equates to approximately 3 million individuals, or 15% of the 20 million U.S. residents represented by the survey. Assuming that the conditions and patterns for this age group generalize to other cohorts of working-age individuals in the U.S., then we can extrapolate that 15%, or roughly 24 million of the 160 million working-age individuals in the U.S., currently fall into the Rising Talent category.
To contrast with other segments based on education and income characteristics, we also looked at those who had an associate’s degree or higher with a per-person household income in the lowest quartile, those with less than an associate’s degree but per-person household income among the top quartile, and those with an associate’s degree or higher and per-person household income in the top quartile.
We identify individuals in the other three quadrants as:
- Undervalued Talent — Those with postsecondary degrees but relatively low wages
- Advancing Talent — Those with relatively high wages but no postsecondary credentials
- Upskilling Talent — Those with postsecondary credentials and high wages
Table 1. Criteria and sample sizes for population segments.
With this segmentation, those identified as Rising Talent had a median per-person household income of $7,000. By definition, 0% of Rising Talent obtained a degree beyond a high school degree. Surprisingly, however, nearly 20% of Rising Talent earned neither a high school diploma nor its equivalent (GED) by 2021. Other income, education, and demographic characteristics of Rising Talent and other segments can be found in Table 2.
Statistical modeling (elastic net classification) confirmed that the four segments are meaningfully distinct from each other based on a large number of personal, health, education history, and employment history factors other than the income and education factors that were used to place individuals in each of the above groups. The confidence in this segmentation is supported by the reasonable level of model performance.
In this analysis, we examined Rising Talent’s economic, health, and personal background circumstances and compared these circumstances with those of individuals identified in the three other talent segments. We then traced the Rising Talent segment's experience over time. The subsequent analysis examines the same individuals arrayed into the same groups from the 2021 data but backs up 12 years and considers their circumstances in 2009, when they were in their late 20s.
Table 2. Income, education, and demographics in 2021.
Rising Talent in their late 30s and early 40s contend with a multitude of challenging life circumstances
Relative to individuals classified as Advancing Talent and Upskilling Talent, Rising Talent and Undervalued Talent faced a comprehensive set of personal, economic, social, and logistical challenges. Specifically, factors that set Rising Talent apart from other population segments include race, marriage status, household size, healthcare coverage, high school GPA, on-time high school graduation status, first-generation vs. continuing college status, computer usage, past trauma, number of incarcerations, and general health. Below, we delve deeper into each of these factors to more clearly outline Rising Talent’s current and past circumstances and challenges.
First, race was among the most important factors distinguishing Rising Talent from others. As shown in Table 2, Black and Hispanic individuals are disproportionately represented among Rising Talent. Rising Talent were also the most likely to be single and the least likely to be married in their late 30s and early 40s, compared to other segments, despite having the second-largest household size, second only to Undervalued Talent (Table 3). This suggests that Rising Talent may be more likely to be single parents, care for additional household members, or live in multigenerational households.
Table 3. Household characteristics.
Additionally, Rising Talent reported having the poorest general health (higher score indicates poorer health) and lack healthcare coverage compared to other segments (Table 4). Taken together, these findings indicate that Rising Talent may face significant challenges in meeting basic human needs.
Table 4. General health and healthcare coverage.
Next, we found that Rising Talent spent less time using computers than individuals in other segments, with over a quarter of them reporting no use of computers at all (Table 5). Given the importance of access to technology and computer literacy in higher education, this disparity suggests that Rising Talent face not only financial and personal challenges but also significant logistical challenges in accessing higher education.
Table 5. Computer usage.
Rising Talent’s early educational and negative life experiences
Formative high school experiences were a significant factor distinguishing Rising Talent from individuals in other talent segments. Rising Talent had an average high school GPA of 2.69, which was significantly lower than all three other segments, including Advancing Talent, another segment of the population that did not pursue higher education. Moreover, reflecting this disparity in high school GPA, 28% of Rising Talent did not graduate from high school before the age of 19, as is typical, a number significantly higher than those in other segments. Finally, this disparity was also evident in the educational level of Rising Talent’s parents — 87% of Rising Talent did not have a parent who attended college (first-generation). All results can be found in Table 6.
Table 6. Early educational background
Early negative life experiences also served as significant indicators for Rising Talent. For instance, Rising Talent reported a higher incidence of past traumas, including encounters with gun violence, experiences of high school bullying, victimization by violent crimes, and hospitalizations (Table 7). Additionally, Rising Talent reported higher rates of incarceration than other talent segments. Although the current data cannot directly address this, these differences likely reflect differences across the communities and environments in which different segments resided, with Rising Talent living in particularly challenging neighborhoods.
Table 7. Negative life experience
In summary, these findings reveal that Rising Talent face multifaceted challenges, including family structure, healthcare, access to technology, and early educational and other negative life experiences. Some of these factors have traditionally been overlooked by postsecondary institutions in favor of addressing more straightforward issues, such as financial hardship. This underscores the importance of considering multiple aspects of individuals’ lives to gain a deeper understanding of the challenges they face and to devise effective and efficient solutions based on those insights. The breadth, depth, and endurance of the challenges that individuals identified as Rising Talent face suggest that making changes and finding solutions for their lives may be complex and challenging.
Rising Talent’s past circumstances predict their future membership in Rising Talent
By identifying past factors that predict individuals’ future membership in Rising Talent, we aimed to trace the paths of individuals contending with a lack of higher education and financial hardships, as well as the other challenges that accompany them.
We looked at the same cohort of individuals surveyed in 2021 but examined responses they gave in 2009. We found that the members of Rising Talent when 12 years younger, faced many of the same challenges they encountered in their late 30s and early 40s. Specifically, unique factors predicting future membership in Rising Talent included the highest degree earned, computer use, and household size (all from 2009).
By 2009, nearly 28% of Rising Talent did not hold a high school diploma. Rising Talent also reported the least computer use, with 24% reporting no computer use at all in 2009, comparable to what was reported in 2021. Lastly, Rising Talent had the largest household size in 2009, suggesting that they may have household members they need to care for or live in multigenerational households. Together, these findings suggest that Rising Talent faced similar challenges in their mid-to-late 20s as they currently do in their late 30s and early 40s.
Rising Talent’s childhood personality and peer characteristics predict their future membership in Rising Talent
Looking back even further to 1997, when our Rising Talent cohort was in their teens, we found that this segment reported the lowest percentage of friends who attended church regularly and the highest percentage of friends who cut classes or school. This suggests that the characteristics of their peers during youth may have played a significant role in shaping their life trajectories, contributing to their eventual membership in the Rising Talent group decades later.
Additionally, many self-reported personality characteristics significantly predicted individuals’ future membership in Rising Talent. For instance, Rising Talent self-reported having lower work standards and being less open-minded than their counterparts in other segments.
While the current analysis offers valuable insights into understanding how early characteristics of Rising Talent shaped their life trajectories and may have contributed to their eventual membership in Rising Talent, it is important to recognize that these analyses are correlational. Drawing any causal inferences from our findings can thus be premature. For instance, although we found that those who had lower work standards in their youth were more likely to become Rising Talent, it is also possible that the environment and circumstances they were exposed to in their youth, or are currently in, indirectly influenced their self-perception and the standards they set for themselves. Therefore, future research needs to explore the complex interplay between personal characteristics and environmental factors to better understand the origins of Rising Talent.
Taken together, our analyses offer insights into Rising Talent’s current and past characteristics. Our results indicate that early experiences in education, personality development, and peer connections may have meaningfully shaped individuals’ educational and career paths for decades.
A downside of the analyses presented thus far is their primary focus on the disparities and challenges faced by Rising Talent, with less emphasis on the opportunity to change their trajectory. Understanding their opportunity and potential to improve their economic, educational, and personal circumstances can help us better devise strategies and solutions to assist these individuals in reaching their educational and career goals. In the following section, we will shift our focus to uncovering and exploring their potential, aiming to identify opportunities for growth and development.
Part 2: Looking Forward at Pathways to Potential
We used a different analytic approach to explore the opportunity for Rising Talent to change their trajectories. We began by defining Rising Talent using the 2009 NLSY97 survey data as follows:
1. Limited higher education: Individuals whose highest degree earned is a high school diploma or less.
2. Low career resiliency: Individuals whose household income, when divided by household size, falls below the 25th percentile, which is $7,840; for context, the 2009 Federal Register’s poverty guideline for a one-person household stands at $10,830.
This led to the identification of 1,720 respondents, representing 16% of the U.S. population in this age range at the time, as Young Adult Rising Talent in 2009. By defining the group early in their lives — in their 20s — we were able to investigate whether and how their paths diverged over time. Some went on to earn higher wages and rise above the lowest quartile in per-person household income and/or earn postsecondary degrees over the next 12 years, while others did not.
Our results indicate that out of the 1,720 individuals identified as Young Adult Rising Talent in 2009, 50% remained in the Rising Talent cohort, while the other half secured better-paying jobs, attained higher education (associate’s degree or higher), or achieved both. Specifically, 4% acquired some level of higher education but remained under the 25th percentile of income in 2021; 34% experienced income growth without obtaining further education; and 12% achieved both higher education and financial growth.
We then used statistical models to identify the factors that predict whether the Young Adult Rising Talent achieved notable economic and education milestones in their lives — pursuing higher education, obtaining higher-paying jobs, or both. While the factors predicting the income and education gains between 2009 and 2021 differed across the groups, two factors consistently predicted paths out of the Rising Talent group: higher computer usage and more job changes. The first potentially captures access to and proficiency with the technology tools that are essential in both current education and workplace settings. The second shows the opportunity, ability, and willingness to leverage workforce opportunities.
Rising Talent who achieved higher education but saw no growth in income
Just 4% of the Young Adult Rising Talent cohort went on to earn a postsecondary degree but did not rise out of the lowest quartile by personal household income. This group, however, had both prior and future experiences that differed substantially from those who remained in the Rising Talent group. (Refer to Table 8 for a summary.) For instance, compared to those who continued to be identified as Rising Talent in 2021, individuals who were classified as Rising Talent in 2009 and later attained a college degree:
- Had higher high school GPAs
- Experienced better mental health during their youth
- Were more likely to have earned a high school diploma by 2009
- Were more likely to have changed careers between 2009 and 2021
- Were more likely to have at least one parent who went to college
- Were more likely to be female
- Used computers more frequently in 2009
- Had more friends who attended church during their youth
- Self-reported being less anxious and less quarrelsome
Rising Talent who saw growth in income but did not earn a higher education degree
Those who secured better-paying jobs without a college degree were also distinct from those who remained identified as Rising Talent (Table 8). Compared to those who continued to be identified as Rising Talent in 2021, these individuals:
- Experienced better mental health during their youth
- Were more likely to have changed careers between 2009 and 2021
- Were less likely to be Black or Hispanic
- Used computers more frequently in 2009
- Were more likely to have earned a high school diploma by 2009
- Self-reported being less anxious
Rising Talent who achieved higher education and saw growth in income
Unsurprisingly, those who not only pursued higher education but also secured better-paying jobs were also distinct from those who remained Rising Talent (Table 8). Compared to those who continued to be identified as Rising Talent in 2021, these individuals
- Were more likely to have changed careers between 2009 and 2021
- Had higher high school GPAs
- Experienced better mental health during their youth
- Were less likely to be Black or Hispanic
- Had smaller household sizes in 2009
- Self-reported being less anxious
- Used computers more frequently in 2009
- Were more likely to have at least one parent who went to college
- Self-reported being more careless and creative
In summary, our results suggest that Rising Talent can — indeed, about half of the survey sample did — overcome their challenging circumstances and achieve greater economic and personal stability by pursuing higher education, switching careers, or both. The significance of factors such as earning a high school diploma by their late 20s and youth mental health are among the top predictors of achieving these positive transformations, which underscores the importance of early intervention to help Rising Talent reach their educational, financial, and career milestones.
More immediate, actionable strategies might involve expanding access to computers and other technologies, given that higher computer usage was consistently associated with Rising Talent achieving their potential. Additionally, considering that those who remained identified as Rising Talent were more likely to stay in their careers over the 12-year period, workplace-embedded educational or training programs to help these individuals transition to careers with higher growth potential could also prove effective. Overall, our findings highlight the complex interplay among personal, economic, logistical, and systemic factors in shaping individuals’ educational and career paths, warranting deeper analyses of individuals, systems, and policies to enact positive changes and create more equitable educational and occupational environments.
Table 8. Characteristics of individuals predicting divergence from the path of Rising Talent.
Conclusion
The analysis of the National Longitudinal Surveys of Youth (NLSY97) reveals the complex and multifaceted challenges faced by the Rising Talent segment of the U.S. workforce. These individuals, earning low wages and lacking higher education credentials, are constrained by financial, logistical, and psychological barriers that significantly limit their upward mobility. As these individuals live with a low margin of error, even minor disruptions can have profound impacts on their lives. Core challenges for Rising Talent include inadequate financial resources, limited access to technology, and poor health conditions, all of which create an environment where thinking about the future becomes a luxury. Negative educational experiences from their youth further compound their reluctance to engage in postsecondary education, perpetuating a cycle of professional stagnation.
Despite these obstacles, our research reveals potential for change. Approximately half of the Rising Talent identified in 2009 managed to improve their circumstances over time by achieving notable milestones, such as earning a higher education degree, securing a higher-paying job, or both, demonstrating that some progress is possible with appropriate support and intervention. Higher computer usage and a willingness to change jobs were consistent predictors of positive change, highlighting areas where targeted support can be most effective. Furthermore, our data indicate that higher education provides the most reliable pathway to achieving economic and personal stability.
However, it is important to note that the findings are correlational rather than cause-effect, and we can only hypothesize about the solutions addressing the problems. Nonetheless, these correlations provide valuable insights that can guide future research and interventions. For example, additional analyses of geographic data and community socio-economic factors can help us better understand the role of environments in shaping the experiences and opportunities available to Rising Talent.
Higher education institutions, particularly those focused on nontraditional and competency-based learning like Western Governors University, have a critical role in providing accessible and relevant education to this population. By addressing core challenges and leveraging insights from successful interventions, institutions can help Rising Talent overcome barriers and achieve greater economic and personal stability. This research offers a blueprint for designing educational programs that are flexible, supportive, and attuned to the unique needs of this population, ultimately fostering a more equitable and inclusive workforce.
